Average Sale Price:

Unless you've been living under a rock, you're probably aware that the average sale price has made a real retreat from its high point in February 2022. 

On an annual basis, the average sale price for Residential properties in the City of Woodstock ended the year at $690,769. This marked an increase in the average sale price of a surprising 10.99% over the same metric in 2021. 

This chart shows a 22 year history of average sale price (Red line) and annual increase (percentage over prior year, grey bars). Despite what you may have heard, still not negative on the year - not by a long shot. 



On a month by month basis, it becomes clear what has happened to average sale prices in Woodstock as rates began rising in March.  

Peaking in February, with an average residential sale price of $824,602, and ending the year with a trough of $555,319.

  

 

Average Sale Price (Detached)

In terms of the basic Detached home, it rose more than the average sale price in Woodstock.

This year, the average sale price of Detached homes in Woodstock was $746,195.  This was up an impressive 11.8% over last year. 

Number of Sales

This is the metric that affects my daily life the most.  As you might imagine, Real Estate Salespeople and Brokers rely on # of transactions to make a living. After trending well above seasonal numbers for the first quarter, the remainder of the year was absolutely tepid, clocking in at just 768 sales for the year.  

This represents the lowest number of transactions in a year since 2014, and a reduction of 22.8% from 2021. 

Average Days on Market

What a mixed bag.  Just like the rest of the stats!  Vastly different in Q1 vs. the rest of the year. 

Firstly, let's talk about Days on Market.  

This is now a metric that you can see on Realtor.ca.  But, it doesn't tell the whole story. As a matter of fact, I believe realtor.ca is misleading home buyers. On realtor.ca, there is a field called "Time on REALTOR.ca," and that reports "Days on Market, or DOM" 

However, there's ANOTHER data field on the WITAAR MLS® system, called CDOM, or CUMULATIVE Days on Market. Cumulative days on market tracks the number of days the listing has been on the market in it's current listing cycle.  Meaning, if the home has not SOLD, or been OFF THE MARKET for a minimum of 90 days, the CDOM tracks all of those days.  

Example:

123 Whatever St. Listed April 1st for $799,900.  On May 30th, the seller cancels the listing. On June 15th, it is re-listed by the same agent, for $749,900.  The DOM counter (and subsequently the "Time on REALTOR.ca" field) is reset to ZERO.  However, the CDOM counter, which AGENT'S see, but not BUYERS, remains at 60 days. This is the TRUE measure of days on the market. 

This is what I ALWAYS report on. 

For the year. we ended up with an average # of CDOM at 25.  Almost double the metric from 2021. 





But look at how it changed throughout the year!!!

A low of 8, and a high (December) of 69!!  What a change! 



 

Number of Active Listings

So, you'd think with Sales Numbers dropping by ~23%, the inventory would be way up.  Right? RIGHT?

No.  It's not.  At all.  Well it's up a BIT, but nowhere near where it COULD be.

What's happening now is that a lot of sellers (and buyers) are taking a wait-and-see approach to the market.  This is causing buyers to make decisions a lot more slowly, or even deferring decision making into the future.  Sellers, similarly, are reluctant to list their properties for reasonable asking prices, and sensing the slowness in the market, are refraining from listing their homes, unless absolutely necessary. 

It's just a complete slowdown in all respects. 

So what's the story with active inventory?  

At the end of 2022, it looked like this: 




What a change over last year.  BUT, still remarkably low.  

Here's an 11-year history of active inventory:

- Peaks in June 2011 with 550 listings.  Troughs in Dec 2022 (and Dec 2020 / Jan 2021) at 14. 


 

Supply vs. Demand

Finally, the true measure of the trajectory of the market lies in how supply relates to demand.  I have charted this particular metric for the past 10 years.  As you saw earlier in this report, supply has been dropping steadily.  But, how does the demand stack up?  Have a look.  Keep in mind, the lower the line, the less supply exists relative to demand. 

Yes, supply relative to demand has increased.  Demand is down a bit, and supply is up a bit, BUT, as of year end, we are still in a seller's market.  Believe it. 

December saw a reasonable 2.83 months of inventory. 

The Blue line represents the number of months of inventory in 2022, Red is 2021, and Yellow is the past 5 year average. 

So this chart shows SOME relief, but, still a fundamentally a seller's market.  



Sellers always wonder "What is the best time to sell my house?" It is natural to attach timing to a calendar.  We have been trained, for whatever reason, to believe that spring is always the right time to sell.  But fundamentally, the best time to sell something is when supply of that thing is low, and demand is high.  This is a pretty rudimentary concept.  The reason I put so much stock into this metric is because it allows me to answer that question with complete confidence.  

If you look at 2022, statistically speaking, the best time to sell was in January/February. Now, interest rates are a HUGE factor here, but this is the third year in a row that the first quarter was the best time to sell.  

This chart shows a 11 year history of average sale prices and active inventory (by month).  Fascinating to put the pandemic spending spree and subsequent correction into context.  You can see how we still have low inventory by looking at this chart. 



 

Predictions for 2023

Do you need to make a Move?

• Staging: Yes, I am still recommending staging. All the way through the pandemic spike, I have been encouraging my sellers to stage their homes.  
• Pictures. My residential sellers ALWAYS get professional photos. Highlight the best features of your home with professionally staged and captured photography! Additional bonus, a keepsake. Your home has probably never looked better.  Keep these professional photos for posterity!
• Virtual Tours. Essential in today's market. To limit in-person showings, and to embrace buyers who might be shopping from a couple of hours away, I always include a professional virtual tour.  Buyers can safely, and realistically tour your home from the comfort of their couch! 
• Floor Plans. Not into pictures, virtual tours, or videos?  That's cool - buyers have the ability to print out my sellers' floor plans and determine "where the couch goes" or "will our king bed fit in this bedroom?" before darkening your doorstep! 
• Offer Handling. We will work together to create a plan that works for you and your circumstances.  There is no "one size fits all" strategy. Throughout this sellers market, I have continued to hone the craft of maximizing the opportunity that sellers have in this market, to get you the best possible price and terms on your sale!  Now that we are returning to a little bit more "normal" market, you can let my experience guide your process! 

• Low Rates.  Ya I know, they have gone up 8 times in 2022.  BUT, when you think historically, rates are still quite low.  
• Appreciation. There's an old saying in the real estate world. "The best time to buy is 10 years ago.  The second best time is today."  I know prices still seem high, and carrying costs have gone up, but if you can get in now, even if things take a bit of a dip in the short term, Real Estate is a long game anyway.  In a decade, a small blip won't make much difference to you. Buying today will get you:
  • Stability of Ownership. With trouble in the rental market (limited supply, landlord/tenant issues at an all time high, evictions happening like crazy), owning your own home, even if it's just a stepping stone towards your goal of ultimately buying your dream home, gives you the security that the landlord won't suddenly change their mind and sell the house, or require occupancy for themselves or a family member, or other issues associated with renting. 
  • An Iron in the Fire. Many home buyers over the years have had to make stepping stone purchases.  They buy something slightly less ideal than their dream home, with the hopes of improving it, and riding the wave of appreciation to their next home, eventually arriving at their dream home. It's unlikely you can save as much money as homes are going up in price currently, so one way to "hedge" against this inflation is to have an iron in the fire.
• Off Market Opportunities. My buyer clients receive the additional benefit of off market opportunities. By the time a home is listed on MLS® the best ones are already a feeding frenzy, competing with other buyers.  Some sellers don't want that feeding frenzy in their home, and would be happy to sell it to someone through an off-market transaction. People who are CLIENTS of mine, get shortlisted for those opportunities as they come along. I have other marketing techniques to locate off market opportunities for my buyers as well.  Rest assured, I'm working to find you a home, if you hire me to help!

Closing