Woodstock Market Report - October 2022

By: Ben Sage

Woodstock Market Report - October 2022

Tags: Woodstock, Stats, Statistics, Real Estate, House, For Sale, Sold, Market


Welcome to the October edition of the Woodstock Homes Monthly Market report.  

This is definitely awkward.  Why?  Well, aren't we supposed to be in the middle of a correction? 

The numbers disagree. 

But, this goes a long way to answering a question I have had about forecasts from CMHC and major banks like RBCTD, etc.  For the past several months, these folks have predicted market corrections in real estate prices between 15% and 29%.  Yikes.

It would be more meaningful to me if these predictions were focused on just WOODSTOCK's market, but alas, I have to interpret these data and attempt to reconcile how the wider market will affect our little slice of the national real estate pie. 

If you've been following the Woodstock market, you know that between February 2022 (the peak), and August, the average sale price in Woodstock has decreased $246,231 or 29.2%.  This is obviously on the high side of the bank's predictions, so my question has constantly been "What happens in markets where we have already SEEN that much decrease in pricing?  Are we due for MORE?"  I understand that with averages, some markets will decrease MORE and some will decrease LESS, but it just felt exceptionally scary to think that we could actually drop MORE than the bank's worst case predictions. Given Woodstock's exceptional location, well employed workforce, and pressure from nearby, more-expensive markets, it surprised me that we might overachieve! 

Maybe this is our answer.  Our market correction got out ahead of itself, and September has shown that the Woodstock market is resilient.  

My opinion is that a continued lack of supply has kept prices lofty in Woodstock for the month of September.  Yes, we have WAY MORE inventory now than we did at the beginning of the year, but it is NOT piling up like you might expect in a market correction.  

Read on for the specifics of how the real estate market performed in September 2022.

Average Sale Price:

Average Sale prices jumped unexpectedly in September, increasing by an impressive 12.21% over August's average sale price. 

So, does this mean that the market correction is stabilizing?  I wouldn't go that far, although these results did surprise me. 

I expected prices to continue to drop, although at a slower pace, after the bank of Canada increased the overnight rate by 0.75% on September 7th.  The bank rate now sits at 3.25%. This is the highest the rate has been since early 2008.  The BoC's next meeting is scheduled for October 26th, and although it is a bit early to begin predicting what their decision might be, new guidance shows an expected target at 4.5%, so at least one or two more increases in the rate are likely between now and Q2 2023. 

In September 2022, the average residential property purchase price in Woodstock (including all residential property sales reported on the Woodstock, Ingersoll Tillsonburg Area Association of Realtors) increased measurably to $669,211. This is positively monumental increase of 12.2% from last month's average sale price of $596,371.  

This chart shows a 20 year history of annual average sale price (Red line) and annual increase (percentage over prior year, grey bars).  I'm anxious to see what happens to this chart at the end of 2022!!  

Average Sale Price (Detached)

After a couple months of drops in average sale price, the "detached" home average jumped up massively this month, up 17.6% month over month.  It ended September at $750,477. 

February's high was a staggering $928,212. 


Number of Sales

September is usually the tale of two halves.  As people get back into routines, with the return to school, work (for teachers and education workers), and holidays come to an end, people seem to take a "real estate pause" for the first half of September, with a return to normal activity around the beginning of the third week of the month.  That was certainly the reality of September 2022.  

The number of transactions remains stubbornly low, with just 47 this month.  This was down 11.3% from August, and represents WAY fewer sales than the past 10 year average of 74 sales during the month of September. 


Average Days on Market

As you have probably noticed while driving around Woodstock, we are definitely seeing a continued increase in the amount of time homes spend on the market.  With all of the trickery going on with holding offers, cancelling-and-relisting, etc., the DOM has remained below 10-11 for 2 + years. 

As seen here, DOM ticked up again (12.5%) from 40, to 45

A note about this metric.  Although I call it "DOM," the stat I report is known internally as CDOM.  The "C" stands for Cumulative. This stat tracks the amount of time a house has spent on the market in it's current listing cycle. So if the home came off the market for a few days in order to repair something, adjust pricing, stage, etc., but was promptly re-listed within a short period of time, the DOM metric resets, but the CDOM metric continues to count from the original listing. 

Supply vs. Demand

To truly understand the trend, we must look at how supply relates to demand.  As you saw earlier in this report, supply has dropped slightly, and unit volumes have disappointed...  This is a visual representation of how that looks.  Keep in mind, the lower the line, the less supply exists relative to demand

September is showing more-or-less constant inventory relative to demand, ending the month at 3.49 months of inventory. This leaves us in seller's market territory, but, JUST BARELY. 

FYI, The Blue line represents 2022 YTD, Red is 2021, and Yellow is the past 5 year average.

How to interpret this information? 

Traditionally, a supply of between 4-6 months of inventory means that sales prices are likely stable, not really increasing, or decreasing by any drastic amount.  A supply lower than 4 months indicates a seller's market, with pricing appreciating faster than inflation, and a supply over 6 months is a buyer's market, with prices dropping rapidly, and days on market growing.  

We are getting SUPER close to 4 months of inventory....

Sellers always wonder "What is the best time to sell my house?" They seem to want to attach timing to a calendar.  We have been trained, for whatever reason, to believe that spring is always the right time to sell.  But I firmly believe the best time to sell something is when supply of that thing is low, and demand is high.  This is a pretty rudimentary concept.  The reason I put so much stock into this metric is because it allows me to answer that question with complete confidence.  

If you look at 2021, statistically speaking, the best time to sell was in February/March, and November/December.  Counterintuitive, right? 

I've long predicted that January/February 2022 was probably the best time to sell a house, and so far that remains the case.  

Do you need to make a Move?

If some kind of Real Estate move is in your plan for 2022, you can rest easy, and put my 15 years of experience to work for you. Every market presents its own opportunities and difficulties. The interpretation of the data, and how it relates to your particular circumstances, is where I can truly help you! 

If you are a Seller, having a strategy has never been more important. Here's how my sellers have maximized on the current market trends:
  • Staging: Yes, I am still recommending staging. This is an extraordinary opportunity to capitalize on market trends. Yes, you will likely sell if you don't stage, but there is a measurable difference in price and terms when buyers are climbing all over each other to submit an offer on your home.  Why not take the time and make it look its absolute best before showcasing it to the market?
  • Pictures. My residential sellers ALWAYS get professional photos. Highlight the best features of your home with professionally staged and captured photography! Additional bonus, a keepsake. Your home has probably never looked better.  Keep these professional photos for posterity!
  • Virtual Tours. Essential in today's market. To limit in-person showings, and to embrace buyers who might be shopping from a couple of hours away, I always include a professional virtual tour.  Buyers can safely, and realistically tour your home from the comfort of their couch! 
  • Video Tours. If a picture is worth a thousand words, a video is worth millions! Moving camera open house tours of your home, on youtube for everyone to enjoy. Why not cater to the video loving public? 
  • Floor Plans. Not into pictures, virtual tours, or videos?  That's cool - buyers have the ability to print out my sellers' floor plans and determine "where the couch goes" or "will our king bed fit in this bedroom?" before darkening your doorstep! 
  • Offer Handling. We will work together to create a plan that works for you and your circumstances.  There is no "one size fits all" strategy. Throughout this sellers market, I have continued to hone the craft of maximizing the opportunity that sellers have in this market, to get you the best possible price and terms on your sale!
If you are a Buyer, things are going to be difficult for you, but there are great reasons to get into the market now!
  • Appreciation. There's an old saying in the real estate world. "The best time to buy is 10 years ago.  The second best time is today."  I know prices seem to be adjusting downward, but we have no way of predicting how far down they might go, and if you can get in now, even if things take a bit of a dip in the short term, Real Estate is a long game anyway.  In a decade, a small blip won't make much difference to you. Buying today will get you:
    • Stability of Ownership. With trouble in the rental market (limited supply, landlord/tenant issues at an all time high, evictions happening like crazy), owning your own home, even if it's just a stepping stone towards your goal of ultimately buying your dream home, gives you the security that the landlord won't suddenly change their mind and sell the house, or require occupancy for themselves or a family member, or other issues associated with renting. 
    • An Iron in the Fire. Many home buyers over the years have had to make stepping stone purchases.  They buy something slightly less ideal than their dream home, with the hopes of improving it, and riding the wave of appreciation to their next home, eventually arriving at their dream home. It's unlikely you can save as much money as homes are going up in price currently, so one way to "hedge" against this inflation is to have an iron in the fire.
  • Off Market Opportunities. My buyer clients receive the additional benefit of off market opportunities. By the time a home is listed on MLS® it is already a feeding frenzy, competing with other buyers.  Some sellers don't want that feeding frenzy in their home, and would be happy to sell it to someone through an off-market transaction. People who are CLIENTS of mine, get shortlisted for those opportunities as they come along. I have other marketing techniques to locate off market opportunities for my buyers as well.  Rest assured, I'm working to find you a home, if you hire me to help!