Welcome to the June edition of the Woodstock Homes Monthly Market report.  

THIS IS THE EXTRA SPECIAL MARKET CORRECTION/PUPPY EDITION SPECTACULAR! 

So if you're a home owner, looking to sell your property, this might feel like a sad time, as you've watched your largest asset grow in value to an unimaginable height, only to come crashing/tumbling/falling/dropping/floating-like-a-feather back to levels once seen in the doldrums of October/November 2021. 

Did you detect some sarcasm in this text?  You're on to something. 

For some perspective, the average sale price in October of 2021 was $671,508.  Right around May 2022's average price.  

HOWEVER, If you had sold your home in October of 2021, it would have been worth 31.3% more than it was in October of 2020, and 59.8% more than it was in October of 2019. 

Still feel like crying?

To offset some of the intense sadness associated with this situation, I have interspersed this market report with random photos of puppies, to help brighten your day!  Like this one: 



Why puppies you ask?

I'm glad you asked!! My dear friends Josh and Laya Birtch bred their beloved household pet, Luna, and the result is these 12 (yes TWELVE) gorgeous puppies.  Some of whom are still looking for a home.  If you have a great house with a back yard and extra love to give, please let me know and I can point you in the direction of some very cute, very loveable puppies.  

And if you don't have a home with a fenced yard, or a back yard at all? What are you waiting for?  Prices have corrected a bunch, remember?? Let's go shopping!!

Here is a closer look at some details from the Woodstock Real Estate Market in May 2022.....

Average Sale prices continued slipping in May of 2022, as expected.  

Contrary to some media reports, they have not fallen off a cliff in any way.  In fact, as mentioned in my opening, they are back to levels seen originally in October / November of 2021.  If you skipped my intro (shame on you!), take a look now, for comparisons between this October and those in years gone by....

In May 2022, the average residential property purchase price in Woodstock (including all residential property sales reported on the Woodstock-Ingersoll District Real Estate Board MLS system) pulled further back to $684,223. This is a drop of 4.1% from last month's average sale price of $713,188, and a drop of 18.8% from the February Peak. 

One important factor to note is that the reduction in average sale prices was smaller in May than the prior month (4.1% vs >8%).  It's too early to determine whether this is a stabilization of prices, or just a bump in a larger decline.  Hard to say, but my suspicion is that with increasing interest rates, it's likely the latter, and we are in for more price declines in the not-too-distant future. 





This chart shows a 20 year history of annual average sale price (Red line) and annual increase (percentage over prior year, grey bars).  I'm anxious to see what happens to this chart at the end of 2022!!  Just kidding, it's a puppy.

I like to track the benchmark "detached" home sale price, to give me an idea of how that compares with attached and semi-detached homes.  

Detached homes heavier losses in May vs. all residential homes, for some reason.  

The average sale price for detached homes dropped by 6.7% month over month.  It ended May at $739,070.  February's high was a staggering $928,212. 



Also: 

The number of homes changing hands on the Woodstock MLS is right on par with last year, really.  May 2022 was a good month for # of transactions, with 92 homes changing hands.  This is an increase of 39% over April, right in line with traditional May sales numbers, which normally bounce around between ~80-120 sales. 




Mandatory:

Finally, after years of artificially inflated DOM metrics, we are starting to see an increase in the amount of time homes spend on the market.  With all of the trickery going on with holding offers, cancelling-and-relisting, etc., the DOM has remained below 10-11 for 2 + years. 

As seen here, DOM ticked WAY up (91%) to 21, from 11.  

BUYER'S REJOICE!!  Some actual INVENTORY to consider when SHOPPING!!!

The amount of available inventory did jump up again in May, 2022, however at a slower pace than prior months.  (March=58, April=112, May=131).  The lower-than-expected-increase in available inventory could be responsible for propping up the sale price a little higher than expected, and keeping the Days-On-Market indicator from being higher.  

The number of homes for sale at the end of May 2022 was up a bit, to 131. This is up just 17% from last month's total of 112.




So after an incredible run of extremely low inventory, the uptick is nice to see, however, it is really just returning to a little bit more normal market conditions. 

Here's how the inventory levels look, since 2011:

Finally, the true measure of the trajectory of the market lies in how supply relates to demand.  I have charted this particular metric for the past 10 years.  As you saw earlier in this report, supply has ticked up measurably over the past few months. But, how does the demand stack up?  Have a look.  Keep in mind, the lower the line, the less supply exists relative to demand. 

May is showing a slight dip in available inventory relative to demand, down to 1.42 months of inventory. April hit 1.7 months. 

As mentioned earlier, lower-than-anticipated listing supply is probably the culprit here, and will result in a "sticky" situation in terms of price declines as we re-adjust downwards.  My expectation is that a lot of sellers are taking a "wait and see" approach to their plans to sell.

FYI, The Blue line represents 2022 YTD, Red is 2021, and Yellow is the past 5 year average, and the puppy represents an adorable potential addition to your family. 

WHOA LOOK AT THAT SPIKE!!!!


Sellers always wonder "What is the best time to sell my house?" They seem to want to attach timing to a calendar.  We have been trained, for whatever reason, to believe that spring is always the right time to sell.  But I firmly believe the best time to sell something is when supply of that thing is low, and demand is high.  This is a pretty rudimentary concept.  The reason I put so much stock into this metric is because it allows me to answer that question with complete confidence.  

If you look at 2021, statistically speaking, the best time to sell was in February/March, and November/December.  Counterintuitive, right? 

I've long predicted that January/February 2022 was probably the best time to sell a house, and so far that remains the case.  What will the next 7 months have in store for us?  Continued declines, or balancing out?  Not many involved in the industry believe we will have significant increases for the remainder of this year.