Thanks to everyone!

Average Sale Price:

March saw an average sale price of $607,502 for all types of residential transactions in the city of Woodstock, which represented a 0.7% decrease from February's results.  

For the first quarter of 2023, the average sale price has been steady, between $570,000 and $611,000.  This shows the return of stability to the Woodstock market, after a precipitous decline in 2022. This continues the theme from last two months reports.  I would expect further value reductions if inventory increases, but as of yet, we are not seeing a large number of new listings outpacing demand.  If anything, we are still mired in a perpetual undersupply in Woodstock. 

Mainstream media seems to finally be cluing in to this fact, and I am certain you will start to see newsmedia reporting on % over asking sales, bidding wars, etc.  

Moving forward, prices will largely (as always) be determined by market behaviour.  Demand seems to be steady as buyers get more comfortable with "higher" rates.  For now, I would expect prices to continue to hold, and perhaps continue to increase slightly again as the year moves on. 

For now, here's how March looked:





For context, this chart shows a 20 year history of annual average sale price (Red line) and annual increase (percentage over prior year, grey bars).  As you can see, 2022 ended the year up significantly year over year.  The massive spike in property value in the spring buoyed the value for the entire year! 

YTD in 2023, you'd epect the red line to flatten out, and the grey bar to be at or around zero. 

Average Sale Price (Detached)

Detached homes lost a bit of traction in February, as sales prices dropped 4.6% to end the month at $632,635.


 

Number of Sales

Although the "spring rush" traditionally brings increased volume to the market, March break is the unofficial kickoff to that spring market.  Usually the "busy" part of the year begins in the week following March Break. Thus far this year, we have had a large reduction in volume.  March is no different.

The past few years look like this: 

2022 - 106
2021 - 96
2020 - 48 (covid)
2019 - 69
2018 - 86
2017 - 139
2016 - 102

Even by historical standards, for the Woodstock market to have just 67 sales in the month of March is significantly low. 25 units below the average of the last 5 years of March sales. 

So even though volume is ticking up, we are well behind in terms of unit numbers year to date. 



 

Average Days on Market

I have noticed a trend towards "holding offers" on certain underpriced/hot listings in the past month, but the majority are "open to offers at any time."  

Also, higher end homes are still taking a lot longer to sell than they did over the past few years, which is dragging this metric higher. 

Safe to say that despite the signs of heating up, and the properly priced homes selling quickly, there are still signs of softness in the market - days on market is one indicator showing this. 






A note about this metric.  Although I call it "DOM," the stat I report is known internally as CDOM.  The "C" stands for Cumulative. This stat tracks the amount of time a house has spent on the market in it's current listing cycle. So if the home came off the market for a few days in order to repair something, adjust pricing, stage, etc., but was promptly re-listed within a short period of time, the DOM metric resets (as does the indicator on realtor.ca), but the CDOM metric continues to count from the original listing. 

Number of Active Listings

This is the most important factor in our current market trend.  An increase in available inventory will absolutely have a measurable lowering effect on sales prices. Too many new listings too fast will cause prices to drop quickly.  However, I don't see it happening. 

The market remains undersupplied, with just 129 residential properties for sale in Woodstock at this time.  So, despite moderate sales activity, the level of available inventory is low, keeping prices up. 



So after an incredible run of extremely low inventory, the uptick is nice to see, however, it is really just returning to a little bit more normal market conditions. 

Here's how the inventory levels look, since 2011:

Supply vs. Demand

The intersection of supply & demand indicates where we are headed in terms of sale prices.  The less supply available relative to demand means buyers have a hard time finding homes, and have to compete for the good listings.  The more supply relative to demand, the more options (and therefore bargaining power) the buyers have to set sale prices.  

This dynamic is constantly-changing.  When reading this graph, keep in mind, the lower the line, the less supply exists relative to demand. Low = Seller market, High = Buyer's market. 

March continues to show that Woodstock is even further in a sellers market, ending the month at 2.29 months of inventory, a decline of 1/2 a month. 

It's important to note, though, that this metric doesn't indicate the affect on specific market types.  IE - if prices are indeed stabilizing it won't be felt at all price ranges, and across all home types.  In Woodstock, right now, I am noticing high demand for entry-level semi-detached and single family homes, where higher end, luxury homes are having huge price adjustments in order to attract buyers. 

What does this mean?  THIS IS STILL THE BEST TIME TO UPGRADE that I have seen in the past several years.  

Think about it.  Hot demand for entry level properties, low demand for higher end properties.  Sell your starter home, buy your long-term / dream-home.  

For historic reference on supply vs. demand in Woodstock, check out this graph: 

FYI, The Blue line represents 2022 YTD, Red is 2021, and Yellow is the past 5 year average.

How to interpret this information? 

Traditionally, a supply of between 4-6 months of inventory means that sales prices are likely stable, not really increasing, or decreasing by any drastic amount.  A supply lower than 4 months indicates a seller's market, with pricing appreciating faster than inflation, and a supply over 6 months is a buyer's market, with prices dropping rapidly, and days on market growing.  




Sellers always wonder "What is the best time to sell my house?" They seem to want to attach timing to a calendar.  We have been trained, for whatever reason, to believe that spring is always the right time to sell.  But I firmly believe the best time to sell something is when supply of that thing is low, and demand is high.  This is a pretty rudimentary concept.  The reason I put so much stock into this metric is because it allows me to answer that question with complete confidence.  

If you look at 2022, statistically speaking, the best time to sell was in Jan-Mar.  Counterintuitive, right? 

So far in 2023, the best time to sell is RIGHT NOW. 

 

Do you need to make a Move?

• Staging: Yes, I am still recommending staging. This is an extraordinary opportunity to capitalize on market trends. Yes, you will likely sell if you don't stage, but there is a measurable difference in price and terms when buyers are climbing all over each other to submit an offer on your home.  Why not take the time and make it look its absolute best before showcasing it to the market?
• Pictures. My residential sellers ALWAYS get professional photos. Highlight the best features of your home with professionally staged and captured photography! Additional bonus, a keepsake. Your home has probably never looked better.  Keep these professional photos for posterity!
• Virtual Tours. Essential in today's market. To limit in-person showings, and to embrace buyers who might be shopping from a couple of hours away, I always include a professional virtual tour.  Buyers can safely, and realistically tour your home from the comfort of their couch! 
• Video Tours. If a picture is worth a thousand words, a video is worth millions! Moving camera open house tours of your home, on youtube for everyone to enjoy. Why not cater to the video loving public? 
• Floor Plans. Not into pictures, virtual tours, or videos?  That's cool - buyers have the ability to print out my sellers' floor plans and determine "where the couch goes" or "will our king bed fit in this bedroom?" before darkening your doorstep! 
• Offer Handling. We will work together to create a plan that works for you and your circumstances.  There is no "one size fits all" strategy. Throughout this sellers market, I have continued to hone the craft of maximizing the opportunity that sellers have in this market, to get you the best possible price and terms on your sale!

• Appreciation. There's an old saying in the real estate world. "The best time to buy is 10 years ago.  The second best time is today."  I know prices seem to be adjusting downward, but we have no way of predicting how far down they might go, and if you can get in now, even if things take a bit of a dip in the short term, Real Estate is a long game anyway.  In a decade, a small blip won't make much difference to you. Buying today will get you:
  • Stability of Ownership. With trouble in the rental market (limited supply, landlord/tenant issues at an all time high, evictions happening like crazy), owning your own home, even if it's just a stepping stone towards your goal of ultimately buying your dream home, gives you the security that the landlord won't suddenly change their mind and sell the house, or require occupancy for themselves or a family member, or other issues associated with renting. 
  • An Iron in the Fire. Many home buyers over the years have had to make stepping stone purchases.  They buy something slightly less ideal than their dream home, with the hopes of improving it, and riding the wave of appreciation to their next home, eventually arriving at their dream home. It's unlikely you can save as much money as homes are going up in price currently, so one way to "hedge" against this inflation is to have an iron in the fire.
• Off Market Opportunities. My buyer clients receive the additional benefit of off market opportunities. By the time a home is listed on MLS® it is already a feeding frenzy, competing with other buyers.  Some sellers don't want that feeding frenzy in their home, and would be happy to sell it to someone through an off-market transaction. People who are CLIENTS of mine, get shortlisted for those opportunities as they come along. I have other marketing techniques to locate off market opportunities for my buyers as well.  Rest assured, I'm working to find you a home, if you hire me to help!

Closing