Average Sale Price:

After seeing a dip in average sale prices in March, the trend has continued (and amplified) for the month of April.  

In April 2022, the average residential property purchase price in Woodstock (including all residential property sales reported on the Woodstock-Ingersoll District Real Estate Board MLS system) pulled further back to $713,188. This is a drop of 8.97% from last month's average sale price of $783,449. 

This represents a huge 15% drop from February's dizzying high water mark (which was $842,602). We have now returned to an average sale price equal to that of November/December 2021. 





This chart shows a 20 year history of annual average sale price (Red line) and annual increase (percentage over prior year, grey bars).  I'm anxious to see what happens to this chart at the end of 2022!!

Average Sale Price (Detached)

I like to track the benchmark "detached" home sale price, to give me an idea of how that compares with attached and semi-detached homes.  

Surprisingly, the average sale price for detached homes dropped LESS than the average sale price of all homes.  I would have predicted that in a slowing market, a decrease in the number of high end single family detached homes would have had the opposite effect, but it would seem that I would have been wrong! 

In April, the average sale price of detached homes dropped 6.5% month over month.  It ended April at $792,091.  February's high was a staggering $928,212. 

Number of Sales

After a HUGE March for sales, the number of homes changing hands on the Woodstock MLS system suffered a major setback in April, with just 66 homes sold.  This is a huge drop of 38%, and down from 106 sales last month, and a more-normal 100 sales in April 2021. 

Average Days on Market

This metric is probably the most artificially manipulated measurement in the market currently, but I do follow its trend.  After spending months at 9 days on market, finally this measurement ticked up, to 11 months. 

This is normally a time where I pause to discuss sellers' strategies in the market - holding offers, open to pre-emptive offers, not holding offers, etc... 

What I am seeing nowadays is basically a dog's breakfast of strategies. I don't think many agents know what to do in a declining market. In their defense, none of us has been exactly here before. None of us have weathered a pandemic, with huge stimulus spending, tremendous work-from-home-anti-city-exodus pressure, ultra-low interest rates, etc.  We are all flying by the seats of our pants trying to unravel the tension that has built up over the past 26 months. 

Here's an example of a strategy I see playing out in the market these days:

- List lower than expected sale price, hoping for multiple offers. May or may not "hold" offers
- Be unsatisfied with offers when they come in on offer day. 
- Cancel and re-list property at a higher price, more reflective of expected value, with no offer date.
- Maybe get an offer.
- Reduce again to a drastic level if not sold, hold offers again, sell. 

It's no wonder buyers in the marketplace are tired of sellers' "games." 

Number of Active Listings

Whoa!  Look at all those listings!! Suddenly buyers have options! I am setting up days of showing properties where we actually can't fit all of the options into one appointment! This hasn't been the case for a long, long time! 

The number of homes for sale at the end of April 2022 was way up, to 112. This is up 93% from last month's total of 58.  




It's important not to get too carried away with what this actually means.  So, for reference sake, here is a short history of active inventory at the end of April: 

2022 - 112
2021 - 70
2020 - 63
2019 - 142
2018 - 121
2017 - 79
2016 - 171

So after an incredible run of extremely low inventory, the uptick is nice to see, however, it is really just returning to a little bit more normal market conditions. 

Here's how the inventory levels look, since 2011:

Supply vs. Demand

Finally, the true measure of the trajectory of the market lies in how supply relates to demand.  I have charted this particular metric for the past 10 years.  As you saw earlier in this report, supply has ticked up slightly this month.  But, how does the demand stack up?  Have a look.  Keep in mind, the lower the line, the less supply exists relative to demand. 

April is showing a massive increase in inventory, to 1.7 months of inventory. This trend is finally marking the beginning of a welcoming trend towards more balance in the marketplace. 

The Blue line represents 2022 YTD, Red is 2021, and Yellow is the past 5 year average.  

Please note: I have changed the scale on this image.  Since it has been years since we saw balanced market (5-6 months of inventory), this chart now displays 0-2 months of inventory. This was done so that we could more easily determine the best time to list a home for sale, or to be shopping for a home.  

WHOA LOOK AT THAT SPIKE!!!!

Sellers always wonder "What is the best time to sell my house?" They seem to want to attach timing to a calendar.  We have been trained, for whatever reason, to believe that spring is always the right time to sell.  But I firmly believe the best time to sell something is when supply of that thing is low, and demand is high.  This is a pretty rudimentary concept.  The reason I put so much stock into this metric is because it allows me to answer that question with complete confidence.  

If you look at 2021, statistically speaking, the best time to sell was in February/March, and November/December.  Counterintuitive, right? 

I'm thinking that when we look back on 2022, the best time to have sold might have been January / February, but it is important to understand that even though things have changed measurably for the first time in years, it remains an exceptional time to be a home seller, and some challenges for buyers will continue, at least for now. 

 

Do you need to make a Move?

• Staging: Yes, I am still recommending staging. This is an extraordinary opportunity to capitalize on market trends. Yes, you will likely sell if you don't stage, but there is a measurable difference in price and terms when buyers are climbing all over each other to submit an offer on your home.  Why not take the time and make it look its absolute best before showcasing it to the market?
• Pictures. My residential sellers ALWAYS get professional photos. Highlight the best features of your home with professionally staged and captured photography! Additional bonus, a keepsake. Your home has probably never looked better.  Keep these professional photos for posterity!
• Virtual Tours. Essential in today's market. To limit in-person showings, and to embrace buyers who might be shopping from a couple of hours away, I always include a professional virtual tour.  Buyers can safely, and realistically tour your home from the comfort of their couch! 
• Video Tours. If a picture is worth a thousand words, a video is worth millions! Moving camera open house tours of your home, on youtube for everyone to enjoy. Why not cater to the video loving public? 
• Floor Plans. Not into pictures, virtual tours, or videos?  That's cool - buyers have the ability to print out my sellers' floor plans and determine "where the couch goes" or "will our king bed fit in this bedroom?" before darkening your doorstep! 
• Offer Handling. We will work together to create a plan that works for you and your circumstances.  There is no "one size fits all" strategy. Throughout this sellers market, I have continued to hone the craft of maximizing the opportunity that sellers have in this market, to get you the best possible price and terms on your sale!

• Low Rates.  When I bought my first house, our mortgage rate was just over 5%.  The lender said he couldn't believe how low the rates had gotten, and that we were fortunate to get such a low rate!!  Yes, I know rates are creeping up - and they are likely to continue to do so,, but getting a rate hold right now is a great way to protect yourself against mid-term rate increases if you plan to buy a home. 
• Appreciation. There's an old saying in the real estate world. "The best time to buy is 10 years ago.  The second best time is today."  I know prices seem to be adjusting downward, but we have no way of predicting how far down they might go, and if you can get in now, even if things take a bit of a dip in the short term, Real Estate is a long game anyway.  In a decade, a small blip won't make much difference to you. Buying today will get you:
  • Stability of Ownership. With trouble in the rental market (limited supply, landlord/tenant issues at an all time high, evictions happening like crazy), owning your own home, even if it's just a stepping stone towards your goal of ultimately buying your dream home, gives you the security that the landlord won't suddenly change their mind and sell the house, or require occupancy for themselves or a family member, or other issues associated with renting. 
  • An Iron in the Fire. Many home buyers over the years have had to make stepping stone purchases.  They buy something slightly less ideal than their dream home, with the hopes of improving it, and riding the wave of appreciation to their next home, eventually arriving at their dream home. It's unlikely you can save as much money as homes are going up in price currently, so one way to "hedge" against this inflation is to have an iron in the fire.
• Off Market Opportunities. My buyer clients receive the additional benefit of off market opportunities. By the time a home is listed on MLS® it is already a feeding frenzy, competing with other buyers.  Some sellers don't want that feeding frenzy in their home, and would be happy to sell it to someone through an off-market transaction. People who are CLIENTS of mine, get shortlisted for those opportunities as they come along. I have other marketing techniques to locate off market opportunities for my buyers as well.  Rest assured, I'm working to find you a home, if you hire me to help!

Closing